Dealing with Uncertainty

Embrace uncertainty. Some of the most beautiful chapters in our lives won’t have a title until much later.

Bob Goff

Uncertainty is something that has been quite the topic in our world recently, but it is also something we can deal with every day. Whether it is something seemingly small like what will arrive in the mail later in the day or something larger like how a worldwide pandemic that will shape the rest of the week, month, semester, or years to come. This uncertainty can certainly cause many different reactions from people. This serious time that is requiring serious action has got me thinking about how people will respond when they are faced with that tasteless, odorless, senseless thing called, uncertainty.

God does not give us all of the answers because to be honest, why would we need to trust Him with anything if we already knew all of the answers? Sometimes the only thing that you can guarantee in a situation is that it will continue to remain uncertain but if you are prepared accordingly this should not be a time to panic. Graphics or illustrations are something I normally do not do when I write but I feel as though this may be more beneficial and less exhaustive than me trying to explain my thoughts simply through words.

When faced with uncertainty we have very limited options with what we can do and how we can react. In the X axis of this graph, you have those who are underprepared and those who are overprepared. In the Y axis, you have the range of response emotions from totally panicked to completely calm.

The first example is the person who is the panicked and underprepared one. The classic “deer in headlights.” You recognize that there is a problem and should probably do something, but you are too scared to actually take any action that you often fail in solving your problem when faced with uncertainty.

The bottom left are the people who are underprepared and calm. In a time like this, you may find yourself in this situation. You may have possibly become desensitized to the media that when a real crisis happens you don’t believe it. You may even trust the wrong sources entirely but regardless; it is not a great place to be. It is not a good place to be because when you are not thinking critically when it is really important to take action it is either too late or you fail to do so. This also results in failure.

The top right is the lethal combination of panic and over preparedness. These are the people who go out and buy a year-long supply of toilet paper. The problem with this person is that when you clear out all of the canned goods and hand sanitizer you aren’t helping anyone but yourself. It is both selfish and short sighted. These people are so panicked that they aren’t rational enough to prepare mindfully and even though they can sit on their own throne of toilet paper, they often fail as well.

The last person in the lower right is really where you want to be. You are cautious and have taken the necessary steps to prepare. You even enough toilet paper that will last you a more reasonable amount of time and you are not hoarding gallons of hand sanitizer. You remain calm knowing that you have done everything you possibly can. Although, there is still caution that must be taken because even if you are calm you can still be over prepared which is where the law of diminishing returns comes into play.

The Law of Diminishing returns basically says this: The more you prepare the better you will be able to tackle whatever problem you are facing up until a point where those benefits begin to diminish and then flatline. Continuing to prepare beyond this has diminishing returns. At this point you are just wasting your time and it could crash even further when people’s opinion of you changes because you hoarded all of the toilet paper during your panicked effort to build the the biggest bathroom tissue throne.

The best thing about finding your sweet spot on the axis of uncertainty is that it is a lesson that can be applied to really any major project in your life. This comes from doing four simple things.

1. Do enough research to make an informed decision.
2. Take effective action without overdoing it.
3. Stay calm knowing you did all you could.
4. Adjust your approach as new information comes out.

An example of a way you can apply this to one point of uncertainty in your life is your retirement plan. If you apply this to your retirement plan and investments it can give you some peace of mind when there are a lot of highs and lows and when it is so volatile like our current situation. With something like this, you have to look at the long term. You can update the balance every year based on your return just to make sure it isn’t swaying too far into bonds or stocks and it is balanced to match the risk you are willing to tolerate but other than that you leave it alone. You do not touch that money. Through good times and bad. Now, I know it is hard to not want to check it constantly to see if you have lost anything or if you gained anything but the fact of the matter is, with the current market, it is going to do that a lot and it really isn’t beneficial to panic about a large drop when you will not be touching it for the next thirty years at least anyways. There is no need to panic when you focus on knowing that you are in it for the long run. If you have done the research, you know that the average return is at least 10% so you know your money will be safe, therefore you should focus on big picture of staying calm and knowing you have done everything you can. You can wait until you make your yearly changes to adjust your plan based on any new information you learn throughout the year.

If you look at everything in life, we are only guaranteed a certain amount of certainty. God is not going to reveal His plan to us because if He did, why would we need to put our trust in Him? Think of an event or a project in your life like a bucket. You can fill that bucket with planning and research. You can weigh the risks and the pros and cons. You can plan and take every action preparing for as many contingencies as you feel comfortable preparing for. There is, however, only so much you can do. This is the point where you need to embrace uncertainty. This is the unplannable area. It is the rain delay, a car accident, or who knows, maybe even a global pandemic. You do the best you can and know everything else is out of your control. There are thousands of different areas in our lives where we have to embrace uncertainty. There will always be things outside of our control, but we can have hope and trust in God’s sovereign plan for our lives.

The sooner that we can get used to the fact that there are so many things in life that we cannot control the sooner we can adjust, adapt, and change our plans accordingly. No matter what happens in your life you always have a choice in how you react and how you respond to the world. At a time like this, I understand it is difficult to not get anxious and sometimes even panicked but as we head into even more uncertain times let’s do our best to remember that we have a Creator that is still in control and still has a plan for our lives that surpasses all of our understanding. It can be very easy to forget that Paul commands us in Philippians to rejoice in the Lord always. This is a time of great uncertainty and of widespread panic, but I encourage you to remember who has the whole world in His hands. I encourage you to cast your fears and anxieties on the Lord and to know that He is the almighty protector of our hearts and minds. When we go into times of uncertainty the correct way in our lives, we can be calm and relaxed knowing that we have prepared all that we can beforehand, and that God has the uncertainty under control.

Do not be anxious in anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

Philippians 4:6-7